Outlook on the Metroplex Economy
I was quoted in the following Dallas Morning News article:
Business leaders worry about national economy but optimistic for Dallas-Fort Worth
Cheryl Hall, Dallas Morning News - September 12, 2009
D-FW business leaders are tiptoeing into the fourth quarter.
They want to believe that the worst is behind us, but they aren't about to let their guard down.
There's too much unsettling stuff going on in Washington to suit them. And they're fearful that a crisis in commercial real estate may send us into another banking crisis.
Most don't expect robust economic growth until mid- to late 2010 or beyond. And they worry that truly scary things on the horizon - like mounting federal debt - will make any recovery short-lived.
For the most part, they think that our area escaped much of the economic carnage experienced elsewhere and that we'll continue to outpace the rest of the nation.
Their optimism improves markedly when it comes to the outlook for their own businesses. Some are having the best year ever.
How do I know all this?
A broad-based survey of senior executives and business owners told me so.
With Labor Day behind us, it seemed like a good time to check the economic mood of North Texas. It was, after all, about this time last year that things began to fall apart.
I sent an e-mail survey to an array of decision-makers - from executives at large banks and corporations to owners of small businesses - to gauge their optimism (or lack thereof) about the national economy, D-FW and their businesses.
Almost everyone responded. And they responded with candor and passion.
There is unusual cohesiveness. They overwhelming describe themselves as "cautiously optimistic" about how the end of the year is shaping up.
Only one person is "highly optimistic," a smattering is "slightly pessimistic," and a handful is "really pessimistic."
Most of the negative vibes are tied to the national economy rather than the state of affairs here or with their businesses in particular.
Hasan Pirkul, dean of University of Texas at Dallas's School of Management, sees a real risk of major inflation.
"My faith in our system tempers my pessimism," he says. "Before things get out of hand, we will make necessary corrections in policy to avert disaster. But I must admit we are cutting it close."
Investment adviser Erin Botsford says that a banking crisis could unfold as early as November and that the markets will retest the lows of the first quarter. "The government will likely try another stimulus package, but it will ultimately fail."
Yet when Pirkul and Botsford are asked about their organizations' immediate future, they're completely bullish. It's enough to give you whiplash.
The lone voice of high optimism was Britt Barrett, chief executive of Medical City Dallas Hospital.
Why? "Our economy is fueled by sound business fundamentals that are able to weather the most devastating challenges. We are led by individuals and organizations that embody a spirit of ingenuity and innovation," he says. "And the fact that my BYU Cougars beat the Oklahoma Sooners inspires me with the notion that anything is possible."
Everyone is happy to be doing business here.
A majority of the respondents see slight improvement at their businesses - baby steps to recovery. Staffing firms are getting more employment requests.
Advertising agencies are seeing companies becoming more interested in spending marketing dollars.
Chris Curtis, whose Keller-based company, GoVision, provides jumbo TV screens for major events, puts it this way: "We are seeing a big upswing in discussions about 2010 ideas and business. So although we aren't seeing bookings yet, at least the interest is returning."
Some are having a banner year despite the economy. Delbert Pullen, who owns Dallas-based Total Design & Manufacturing (and who happens to be my cousin), bucked the trend, thanks in part to the Dee and Charles Wyly Theatre and the new Cowboys Stadium. His company makes specialty fixtures and furnishings.
What bugaboos give cause for caution?
"Debt, debt and more debt," says marketing exec Owen Hannay, principal of Slingshot LLC. "Debt on assets that are no longer worth it, personal debt that is getting paid off in lieu of spending and, finally, the mother of all debts that we are racking up as a country."
There is also widespread fear about more intrusion by a "tax-and-spend" government, lack of attention to education and the specter of inflation.
What encourages them most is their belief in American resiliency.
"To some, it may seem like the sky is falling," says Diana Anderson, chief executive of D. Anderson & Co., which recruits patients for clinical research. "However, there are signs that plenty of Americans, imbued with entrepreneurial spirit, are not willing to give up without a fight."
"Things will get better," says Dallas attorney Angel Reyes. "You want to know why? Because they always have."
©2009 Angel Reyes
www.ReyesLaw.com
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